The BLACK SWAN

The unexpected…

“It’s a black swan”

Yes they do really exist, I discovered today but the real wonder is how the author of the book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” Nassim Nicholas Taleb translates the idea into our everyday lives and the happenings in the world. It has always been a goal of mine to become an “Industry Professional”, it’s a catchy term isn’t it? It means that I would be a specialist in my field, don’t get me wrong I still do but in one of lectures today a question that is posed in the book I mentioned came up – in some fields/industries we have specialists who claim to be able to predict future happenings based on trends and patterns…humanity only thought swans were white and had no idea that a black swan existed until one day it was discovered…it was unexpected, unpredictable just like some happenings life which shift thought paradigms and behaviors e.g the internet. So is a specialist in a field that predicts future happenings really a specialist or rather a specialist historian in a specific area? Interesting…

So in my goal to become an “Industry Professional” I feel I have to pose this question, what claims will my position as a specialist be based on? Being the best person for the job because I am the most qualified? When on the other hand the future is unpredictable?

A few days ago another one of my lectures looked at airplane crashes and the idea that the flying of planes is best put in the hands of the least experienced pilot was explored. It may not make sense at first however there is more to it.

So my question today is…in a world where the unexpected happens at random, and we push ourselves to be specialists at something. Are we ever really prepared for what comes at us?

After having worked a few years I really appreciate one thing about this Diploma, hands on experience and not being just theory based. My answer to the above “dilemma” is that no one not even the “Industry Professionals” or “specialists” or “least experienced pilots” can be truly knowledgeable or predictable when it comes to the future. BUT what we can be is equipped with the tools to handle what comes at us. I am in the process of being equipped for business and management and leadership and for that I am grateful for.

Food for thought:

If you are not thoroughly confused by my words above great, I imagine you already have a lot to think about. If you are I urge you to explore the concept of the black swan and come up with your own conclusion…